How many differences are used in the model?
The number of job openings fluctuates through time, providing useful information about the current state of the economy and possibilities for the future. Table 14.4.11 shows the computer results of a Box Jenkins analysis of job openings in thousands, annually at the start of each year from 2001 to 2015, while Fig. 14.4.2 shows the data series with the Box-Jenkins forecasts.2 a. What kind of component (auto-regressive or moving average) does the estimated model include? b. How many differences are used in the model? c. Is the model component that you identified in part a significant? d. Is the constant term significant? e. Based on the figure, would you be surprised to see 15,000,000 job openings in 2020? f. Based on the figure, would you be surprised to see 7,500,000 job openings in 2020?
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