future scenarios wiki post

The idea of the future being different from the present is so repugnant to our conventional modes of thought and behavior that we, most of us, offer a great resistance to acting on it in practice. —John Maynard Keynes, 1937 What does the future hold and what does it mean to different organizations and communities? Strategic planning uses historical information from past events to prepare for the future. Scenarios help plan for significant changes for which the available data is limited and/or uncertain. Scenarios are said to be ideal for preparing for substantial changes by navigating through various potential events and determining different ways to respond to the scenarios. To complete: Read the materials for this week and reflect on the trends and presented in the readings. In the Group Wiki, write by Day 5 responses to the following: Which trends and scenarios did you find most plausible and believable? Why? Looking at your long-term strategic goals for your organization, how might any one of these trends or scenarios impact your organization and community? The American Red Cross Readings Course Text: Chermack, T. (2011). Scenario Planning in Organizations: How to create, use and assess scenarios. San Francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler. Chapter 1: Introduction to Performance Based Scenario Planning Chapter 2: Theoretical Foundations of Scenario Planning Chapter 3: The Performance Based Scenario System Chapter 4: Scenario Case Study Wade, P. A., & Wade, W. (2012). Scenario planning: A field guide to the future [ebrary version]. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley. Retrieved from the Walden University Library databases. Chapter 1, “Escaping the Tyranny of the Present” (pp. 6–23)

 

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